Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
